Latest Zone Forecast

OKZ029-102215-
CLEVELAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORMAN...MOORE
727 AM CST WED MAR 10 2010

.REST OF TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS 20 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
EVENING. LOWS AROUND 40. WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS 10 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS 20 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
20 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS AROUND 60.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
20 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 60S. CHANCE OF SHOWERS 20 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS 20 PERCENT.

Latest OUN Forecast Discussion

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
732 AM CST WED MAR 10 2010

.UPDATE...
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY IS ENOUGH THAT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM NEAR ABILENE TO NEAR
BENJAMIN AND SEYMOUR AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO ADD THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CST WED MAR 10 2010/

AVIATION...
STRATUS SPREADING OVER KANSAS MAY AFFECT KPNC THIS MORNING
ALTHOUGH CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY PRIMARILY
STAY TO THE NORTH. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND STRONG
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING. AS THIS FRONT LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM...
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT KHBR AND KCSM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CST WED MAR 10 2010/

DISCUSSION...
A LOT ON THE TABLE TODAY WITH BOTH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL SOUTH
AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH. STORM SYSTEM OVER NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE
EAST- NORTHEAST AND OVER OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE BOUNDARY
IS ALREADY TAKING SHAPE FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO EAST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON AND PRECIP IS ALREADY BEING OBSERVED IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. BUT DRY SLOT WILL
MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA SOUTH OF THE UPPER
LOW WHICH WILL USHER IN DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR AND GUSTY WEST/
SOUTHWEST WINDS. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR TEXAS
COUNTIES... AND A RED FLAG WARNING FOR NORTH TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE AFTERNOON RH VALUES NEAR OR
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE SOME RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AS THE UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COOL MID-LEVEL AIR APPROACH... AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
IN THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA SHOULD THE
DRY AIR NOT SPREAD AS FAR EAST AS EXPECTED. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
LINGER NORTH THIS EVENING IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

ANOTHER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA PIVOTING AROUND THE LARGER
UPPER LOW IN WESTERN MISSOURI WILL PROVIDE LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP
ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH MOVING AN UPPER LOW SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT BASIN
TOWARD SOUTHWEST TEXAS OR NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA EARLY NEXT WEEK...
ALTHOUGH HAVE SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF THE
SURFACE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. GFS KEEPS FRONT IN NORTH TEXAS AND
THEREFORE BRINGS MUCH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THE FRONT IS MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH IN THE ECMWF KEEPING MAIN AREA OF PRECIP TO THE
SOUTHWEST. HAVE UPPED POPS IN THE LATER EXTENDED PERIODS WITH
THIS... BUT NOT AS HIGH AS MEX MOS WOULD GIVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  39  59  37 /  20  10  10  20
HOBART OK         60  35  58  35 /  20  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  67  38  64  38 /  30   0  10  20
GAGE OK           53  31  53  32 /  50  20  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     62  39  52  37 /  50  40  10  20
DURANT OK         70  43  63  41 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR OKZ036-037-039-044>046-050.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

Latest GFS MOS

KOUN   GFS MOS GUIDANCE    3/10/2010  0600 UTC
DT /MAR  10      /MAR  11                /MAR  12             /
HR   12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 00 06
X/N              63          40          56          38       53
TMP  43 52 59 61 56 51 47 44 41 46 51 54 53 47 45 42 39 43 48 50 44
DPT  39 41 37 37 38 37 37 36 35 36 36 35 34 34 34 33 32 32 32 33 34
CLD  CL SC BK BK FW FW CL CL FW SC SC BK BK OV OV OV SC SC BK OV OV
WDR  07 16 19 22 23 26 29 30 31 33 32 31 32 31 30 31 31 32 32 32 33
WSP  04 07 12 15 10 11 13 12 11 13 13 14 12 08 08 12 11 15 15 15 11
P06         7    31     8     6     5     1    11     4    11  8  5
P12              41          16           6          15       13
Q06         0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0  0  0
Q12               1           0           0           0        0
T06      2/ 5  5/11  1/11  2/ 4  1/ 7  1/ 4  3/ 0  3/ 1  2/ 2  3/ 3
T12                  5/12        2/ 7        3/ 4        3/ 6  3/12
POZ   0  0  0  0  0  1  1  1  1  1  0  0  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  1
POS   0  0  0  0  1  0  0  0  0  1  1  1  1  0 23 12 20 17 24 12  1
TYP   R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R
SNW                           0                       0
CIG   8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  6  6  6  7  7  7  6  6  6  6
VIS   7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7
OBV   N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N

-----------------

KOUN   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   3/10/2010  0000 UTC
FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192
WED  10| THU 11| FRI 12| SAT 13| SUN 14| MON 15| TUE 16| WED 17 CLIMO
X/N  63| 40  58| 38  54| 39  59| 39  61| 42  58| 44  57| 40  60 39 64
TMP  56| 41  54| 39  51| 40  56| 40  57| 43  55| 45  54| 41  57
DPT  35| 35  34| 33  32| 34  35| 36  40| 38  38| 39  38| 36  37
WND  20| 13  13| 10  17| 14  12|  7  15| 15  15| 15  14| 14  11
P12  31| 15   4| 16  17|  7   9|  5  17| 38  31| 23  14| 11  13999999
P24    |     15|     28|      9|     17|     44|     27|     13   999
Q12   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  2   1|  0    |
Q24    |      0|      0|      0|      0|      2|       |
T12   3|  2   2|  3   2|  4   2|  5   4| 20   6|  7   4|  7   5
T24    |  5    |  4    |  4    |  5    | 20    | 10    | 10
PZP   1|  2   1|  0   0|  3   0|  2   0|  2   0|  3   2|  3   1
PSN   0|  0   0|  2   2|  0   3|  0   6|  2   1|  0   0|  3   2
PRS   2|  1   5| 16  17|  5   3|  2   2|  3   4|  6   7|  6   6
TYP   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R
SNW    |      0|      0|      0|      0|      0|       |