Latest Zone Forecast

OKZ029-040930-
CLEVELAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORMAN...MOORE
732 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.REST OF TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.INDEPENDENCE DAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. LOWS AROUND 70.
NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS 60 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. NOT AS WARM. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTHEAST
WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 90.
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 90S.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 70S.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S.

Latest OUN Forecast Discussion

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1047 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
A FEW T-STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NW OK TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY TRACK
NEAR THE GAG AND WWR TERMINALS. OTRW...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL CIGS ABV 20K FT. SCATTERED
T-STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND NORTH OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL OK BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...
REACHING N-TX AROUND MID EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/

UPDATE...
WITH LOSS OF HEATING... CHANCE OF ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR
AND WEST OF THE WARM FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED. HOWEVER.. STORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT. SO
HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF ISOLATED STORMS BUT DID NOT ADJUST THE
POPS. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WILL SEND UPDATES SHORTLY.

MAXWELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/

AVIATION...
A WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
SMALL THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT FOR A FEW
HOURS EARLY THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS MAY ALSO MOVE INTO PARTS OF
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED T-STORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE NEAR AND NORTH OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON SATURDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/

DISCUSSION...THE 700 MB RIDGE THAT SUPPRESSED THUNDER YESTERDAY...
HAD BEGUN TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY. A HEALTHY AFTERNOON CUMULUS
FIELD DEVELOPED...BUT WITH THE 500-300 MB RIDGE STILL IN
PLACE...INSTABILITY AND LIFT WERE LACKING. THE FOCUS FOR LOCAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A SURFACE WARM FRONT...WELL DEFINED IN
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA...EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AND DISSIPATE
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. FARTHER WEST...HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL ACT TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...AS
THEY FORM ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND DRIFT EASTWARD. WE DREW CHANCE POPS
INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

THE SATURDAY FORECAST IS SHAPING UP TO BE QUITE DIFFICULT...AS NO
SINGLE MODEL HAS A GREAT HANDLE ON EVERY FEATURE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON FROM WEST
CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WHERE THE EVENT EVOLVES FROM
THAT POINT...DIFFERS. OUR PREFERRED MODEL WAS THE ECMWF. THE NAM IS
ALSO ON THE RIGHT TRACK...BUT APPEARS TOO DRY SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...WHERE THE EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE HAD REACHED UP TO NEAR
WACO TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHWARD
TONIGHT. WE SIDED WITH SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN DEWPOINTS. THE EXCESSIVELY
DRY NAM AFFECTS ITS INSTABILITY FIELD AND LIKELY THE CONVECTIVE
SCHEME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE OPERATIONAL GFS WAS AN
OUTLIER...PRODUCING NEARLY A CLOSED 700 MB LOW OVER THE PANHANDLES
WHICH FORCES MCS DEVELOPMENT WELL SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT.

WE FELT...INSTEAD...THAT WHILE A FEW STORMS WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH OF
THE FRONT...THE MAJORITY OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...IN A ZONE OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. THEREFORE...WE SHIFTED POPS SOMEWHAT FARTHER NORTH.
WE ALSO HANG ONTO HIGH CHANCE POPS ALONG THE RED RIVER INTO SUNDAY.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...THE CYCLE WILL REPEAT...AS THE FRONT RETURNS
SLOWLY BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND INCREASING RIDGING FROM
THE WEST. THIS TIME...HOWEVER...THE MODELS INDICATE GREATER LEE
TROUGHING...AND NO REMNANT COASTAL FRONT TO DELAY TRANSPORT OF DEEP
MOISTURE. GULF SOUNDINGS SHOWED 21 G/K MIXING RATIOS THIS
MORNING...WHICH IS EXTREMELY MOIST. IF THIS MOISTURE REACHES THE
HIGH PLAINS...WE SHOULD SEE DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...EVEN
BENEATH THE RIDGE. ALSO...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING...HEAT INDICES
MAY BECOME A CONCERN BY MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  77  99  70  88 /  10  30  60  30
HOBART OK         79  98  70  88 /  10  30  60  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  79 104  73  87 /  10   0  50  50
GAGE OK           72  90  65  85 /  40  30  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     78  92  67  87 /  20  30  30  10
DURANT OK         78 101  74  87 /   0   0  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

Latest GFS MOS

KOUN   GFS MOS GUIDANCE    7/04/2009  0000 UTC
DT /JULY  4            /JULY  5                /JULY  6          /
HR   06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 18 00
X/N                    93          70          88          67    88
TMP  85 81 78 84 88 90 88 81 76 73 71 77 83 87 87 77 72 70 68 84 85
DPT  65 66 67 66 65 65 66 67 67 66 65 67 67 64 63 64 63 63 63 67 65
CLD  CL CL BK BK BK BK BK OV OV OV OV BK BK SC FW CL CL CL SC BK SC
WDR  17 19 18 22 24 27 35 02 02 02 02 05 05 04 07 09 12 15 10 12 13
WSP  11 12 09 10 09 07 06 03 02 03 05 08 07 07 07 03 02 02 02 05 07
P06        23    31    19    36    32    12     3     3     5 11  4
P12                    38          55          14           5    15
Q06         0     1     0     3     1     0     0     0     0  0  0
Q12                     1           4           0           0     0
T06     23/12 23/ 2 23/19 26/21 18/12  8/ 0  4/20  5/21 11/12  8/20
T12           35/12       40/21       18/12        5/21    11/12
CIG   8  8  8  8  8  8  7  7  8  7  5  7  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8
VIS   7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7
OBV   N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N




369
FOUS24 KWNO 040000

-----------------

KOUN   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   7/04/2009  0000 UTC
FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192
SAT  04| SUN 05| MON 06| TUE 07| WED 08| THU 09| FRI 10| SAT 11 CLIMO
X/N  93| 70  88| 67  88| 70  93| 73  93| 77  95| 77  96| 74  95 69 93
TMP  88| 71  87| 68  85| 71  90| 73  91| 77  92| 77  93| 74  92
DPT  66| 65  63| 63  65| 66  68| 68  68| 71  67| 70  69| 68  68
WND  10|  6   8|  7   7|  7   9|  9  12| 12  14| 14  13| 13  10
P12  38| 55  14|  5  15| 17  10|  9   7|  5   7|  5   7|  9   9999999
P24    |     55|     15|     19|     15|      7|      9|     12   999